Trade Odell Beckham Plus draft fits for QB prospects and more

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Trade Odell Beckham? Plus, draft fits for QB prospects and more Published: Mar Jake Elliott Jersey 30, 2018 at 07:22 AM NFL.com Analyst ***** general manager Dave Gettleman might've echoed the words of his mentor, Ernie Accorsi, in response to a question from NFL Network's Kimberly Jones regarding Jr.'s status on the team, but it appears to me that he could be on the verge of breaking up with his best player prior to the 2018 . Reports from the Annual League Meeting suggest the aren't the three-time Pro Bowler, but they are certainly keeping the phone lines open in case they are by a proposal from a team hoping to acquire the star receiver. With the apparently demanding a bevy of picks in return for Beckham's services -- ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that , while our own Ian Rapoport and Tom Peli sero have heard -- it looks like OBJ could be auctioned off for the type of premium draft currency that could help New York accelerate retooling efforts after a disastrous 3-13 campaign. For a team-builder like Gettleman, who boasts a strong track record of putting together championship-caliber squads through the draft, this kind of enhanced draft war chest would create a dream scenario in a rebuilding situation, right? My podcast partner Daniel Jeremiah and I walked through on a recent episode of "Path to the Draft" where we turned an OBJ trade and a swap of the second overall pick into five selections within the top 40. In many instances, I'd be all over a transaction that results in a cluster of lottery tickets on draft day. But with Beckham, I personally just can't get past the thought of shipping off a transcendent talent for unproven commodities. While draftniks love the po sibility of finding the next big thing in the draft, I've been around the league long enough to know that it is hard to find premier players at marquee positions. OBJ is the fastest receiver to ever tally 3,500 receiving yards (36 games) and the first NFL player to have 30 receiving touchdowns in his first 35 games since 1967. No. 13 is one of the most prolific playmakers we've seen in this league in quite some time. He is a threat to score whenever he gets his hands on the ball and his ability to deliver explosive plays is unrivaled in the league today. In each of his first three seasons, OBJ tallied at least 90 catches, 1,300 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Those are the kinds of numbers that eventually result in gold jackets, which is why the should pause before letting their top playmaker walk out the door. Beckham is not only the team's most valuable piece, but he significantly elevates the play of . While most believe a franchise quarterback helps others perform at a higher level, the ' WR1 makes No. 10 a credible threat at the position. Don't believe me? Just look at the two-time MVP's numbers with and without No. 13 on the field since 2015: Manning with OBJ: 63.2 percent completion rate, 66:29 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 7.0 yards per attempt, 91.4 pa ser rating. Manning without OBJ: 60.6 percent completion rate, 14:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, 75.3 pa ser rating. Those numbers are enough to justify keeping the team's No. 1 receiver. In a quarterback-driven league, it is always about making the field general cozy -- and it's quite apparent Beckham helps Manning get into his comfort zone. OBJ is not only capable of turning short pa ses into long gains, but he expands the strike zone for Eli with his exceptional leaping ability and hand-eye coordination. OK, so Beckham been a bit of a headache on and off the field with his antics. But it is hard to part ways with a highly productive playmaker simply due to a handful of weird incidents ( , and ) and . Yes, he did mi s the last 12 games of this past season after fracturing his ankle, but that's not typically a career-altering injury. Although I'm not a big fan of some of OBJ's eccentric behavior, I've heard from people inside the building that he's a hard worker and solid teammate. Of course this 25-year-old needs to work on his profe sionalism on and off the field, but I don't think that is enough to earn walking papers. That said, Beckham is now working under a general manager with a history of dismi sing top performers he didn't see eye to eye with. Remember, Gettleman cut five-time receiver Steve Smith as the general manager of the . He also engaged in a me sy franchise-tag situation with that ultimately led to the cornerback's release from the team. These didn't derail Carolina's 2015 run, though, and that's why no one should dismi s the po sibility of the moving on in 2018 without their best player in the fold. To that point, interested teams will need to approximate the draft capital and cash needed to land the star receiver. From a trade standpoint, it appears the asking price (even if it is indeed two first-round picks) is a reasonable expectation, based on OBJ's status and production as an elite WR1. Keyshawn Johnson cost the a pair of first-round picks in 2000 -- part of a series of moves that left the with a whopping four first-round picks (which ended up being Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Chad Pennington and Anthony Becht). Johnson helped the hoist the Lombardi Trophy, while the draft returns played a part in the making the playoffs six times in the next 11 years. 2000 was also the year when the sent the a pair of first-round picks for Joey Galloway. Seattle parlayed those two picks into a couple of playmakers (2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson) who helped spark a run a few years later. For Dallas, the trade did work out well, with Galloway suffering a torn ACL in his first game with the team. He never topped the 1,000-yard mark with the and failed to deliver on his promise as the designated deep-ball threat in the offense. Recently, we saw the send the "first-round plus" capital (first-round, third-round and seventh-round picks) to land Percy Harvin. The team immediately signed the disgruntled receiver to a hefty contract extension (six-year, $67 million with $25.5 million in guaranteed money) to satisfy his salary demands. Although Harvin didn't quite mesh well with Seattle as a versatile playmaker, he did help the team win XLVIII with that served as a knockout blow on the . For the , the team flipped those picks into a player (Xavier Rhodes) and a key contributor (Jerick McKinnon) on an ascending contender. With those trades in mind, the could certainly pawn off their receiver for enough a sets to orchestrate a quick rebuild if they select the right players on draft day. For a team acquiring Beckham, it would receive a star receiver seeking a contract that resets the market for pa s catchers. Given we've seen this offseason for le s-accomplished players (SEE: ' three-year, $48 million deal or even 's one-year, $9.6 million pact), isn't out of bounds, particularly when you factor in recent deals by other marquee stars (like , who just inked ). While it is unlikely that the three-time Pro Bowler will get "franchise quarterback money," the youngster should surpa s 's average of $17 million per season (on ) and continue to raise the bar for the top playmakers in the game. Which teams could provide a good fit for Beckham? Here are five: Los Angeles Rams: No disrespect to and , but OBJ would add star power to an offense that already sets off fireworks on game day. The explosive playmaker would excel as a catch-and-run specialist or vertical threat in Sean McVay's dynamic scheme. Better yet, he would lure another defender out of the box to create even more running room for . Sure, the would be adding another eccentric personality to the locker room, but Beckham's spectacular game and rock star persona would play well in Hollywood. Cleveland Browns: If the were to acquire OBJ in a trade, you would see the NFL's most explosive wide receiver corps decked out in brown and orange. , and Beckham would form a Golden State Warriors-like squad on the perimeter with a "big" (Gordon), "shooter" (Landry) and "scorer" (OBJ) on the field. Defensive coordinators wouldn't be able to double-team each of the ' playmakers. And Todd Haley's adept at moving the pieces around the che sboard, particularly when he has multiple blue-chip players at his disposal (SEE: his work in Arizona with and Anquan Boldin). With OBJ's old position coach at LSU and on the (Adam Henry) in the fold, the Dog Pound might actually be the best spot for the receiver. Baltimore Ravens: The not only have a need for a dominant No. 1 receiver, but they have a locker room that's well equipped to deal with Beckham's colorful personality. Remember, this is a team that had a bodacious personality like Ray Lewis as the centerpiece of the squad for years. OBJ's antics won't be a major i sue for the organization if he consistently puts the ball in the paint. On the field, No. 13 would significantly elevate 's game. San Francisco 49ers: The best way to help live up to the expectations as a franchise player is to surround him with a bevy of potent weapons. OBJ's spectacular talents as a WR1 would allow Jimmy G to rack up production on a host of "dink and dunk" to ses to the perimeter. In addition, Kyle Shanahan's experience crafting game plans to showcase a star receiver (remember his work with in Atlanta?) would ensure OBJ gets enough touches to make his mark on each and every game. Jacksonville Jaguars: The obvious connection to Tom Coughlin makes this a sensible match. The two-time winner drafted Beckham and helped him quickly grow into a start at the position. On the field, OBJ would give the a legitimate No. 1 receiver to build around, which will help grow as a QB1. With alpha dogs like , , and already in the locker room, Beckham's presence shouldn't disrupt the chemistry or camaraderie established in Jacksonville. DRAFT MATCHMAKER: Team pairings for top QB prospects In a perfect world, the NFL draft is like a game of matchmaker. Players land with teams that have schemes, coaches and supporting casts in place to accentuate their talents. A quarterback, in particular, can see his game enhanced by playing under a coach who understands how to tailor a system around the strong parts of his game. With that in mind, here are the realistic pairings I would love to see for the top quarterbacks in the 2018 cla s: , Cleveland Browns: The USC standout is a blue-collar quarterback with an ultra-competitive attitude. Darnold's rugged game and gritty demeanor not only fit the persona of the city, but they mesh well with Todd Haley's quick-rhythm system. With the offensive architect known for refining improvisational wizards (SEE: his work with Ben Roethlisberger), the marriage between play-caller and quarterback looks great on paper, particularly with a cast of playmakers like and on the outside. , New York Jets: The most polished quarterback prospect in the draft would be a nice fit with the . He could be a Day 1 starter based on talent alone, and his skills as a pocket pa ser would work well in Jeremy Bates' version of the West Coast offense. As a former five-star recruit who was regarded as one of the top quarterback prospects in the country since he was 16 years old, Rosen should be prepared to handle the pre sure of playing under the bright lights on Broadway. , Buffalo Bills: The Wyoming star has been dubbed a developmental prospect by most observers, but his upside could look to bra s like a toned-down version of another big, athletic gunslinger with A-plus arm talent that they're quite familiar with: . (Remember, head coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane both spent significant time with Newton in Carolina.) Allen can create big plays in the pa sing game as a flamethrower from the pocket, while also adding some spice to the running game by taking off on designed runs. Despite accuracy woes hurting his resume, Allen's skills and potential as a multifaceted playmaker could make him a star in Buffalo. , Miami Dolphins: Putting the Heisman Trophy winner with a creative play designer like Adam Gase could lead to fireworks in Miami. The diminutive playmaker, with his fast release and compact delivery, is arguably the best quick-rhythm thrower in the draft. He would excel in a catch-and-run system that allows receivers to rack up YAC on rhythm pa ses. With a solid supporting cast that features a couple of established playmakers ( , , DeVante Parker), Mayfield could thrive in Gase's quarterback-friendly offense. , New Orleans Saints: The most electrifying athlete at the position is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field as a runner or thrower. Sean Payton could certainly foster those skills and create a unique offense that takes the league by storm. With Payton adept at blending various concepts to elevate the play of his quarterbacks, Jackson could emerge as the ultimate offensive weapon. In due time, of course. Landing with the would allow the developmental QB1 to watch Brees man the position for the next couple years. , Pittsburgh Steelers: said back in January , refusing to put a timeline on how long he'll continue to play. But with the well-worn QB having just turned 36, it's time for the to plan for the future. Rudolph is a big, sturdy quarterback with outstanding intangibles and leadership skills. Although he lacks A-plus arm talent, he is an efficient pa ser with a game that's ideally suited for a quick-rhythm system. THREE AND OUT: Quick takes on big developments acro s the league 1) Why the did indeed upgrade at quarterback.Shots fired??! That's the sentiment from supporters after hearing Jay Gruden suggest Washington has improved at quarterback following the trade that allowed the to move on from their former QB1. Gruden said when asked if the 'Skins are better off at the position during the Annual League Meeting in Orlando, Florida. "I don't want to compare two players, but we're always trying to be better at every position. We got better. Alex's experience is well-noted, and his record the last five years is what it is. You could argue that all day, but we feel very good." To JJ Arcega-Whiteside Jersey that point, there's no disputing Smith's experience and production as a winning quarterback. The three-time Pro Bowler compiled a 50-26 record as the starter in Kansas City, posting a 65.1 percent completion rate and a 102:33 TD-to-INT ratio with the . He compiled a 94.8 pa ser rating during that span, while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Granted, Smith only topped the 4,000-yard mark once during his time in K.C., but he is coming off an MVP-caliber season where he posted a 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio and a league-best 104.7 pa ser rating while directing an offense that featured more vertical throws. Cousins, on the other hand, just recorded three straight 4,000-yard seasons as Washington's full-time starter, posting a 24-23-1 record during that span. He tallied an 81:36 TD-to-INT ratio over the past three seasons, with a 67 percent completion rate (including a league-best 69.8 percent rate in 2015). While the numbers suggest Smith and Cousins are nearly identical, their playing styles are quite di similar -- and that makes a huge difference to the play caller. "It's not one thing, it's everything. It's the entire body of work," "He's very good at the intermediate ball. He's good with the quick game. He can run zone reads, the run-pa s options . Very exciting. ... The ability to ad-lib, make plays that aren't there and keep plays alive. Coaching him for the first time will be exciting because I don't think there's a limit on what he can do. He has all the things you want a quarterback to be able to do." When I heard Gruden go to the mat for Smith, I thought it was another example of a head coach endorsing his current QB1. I thought the tape and data would show that these quarterbacks were similar, but to my surprise, Smith is indeed the far superior player. Of the 11 Next Gen Stats pa sing categories, Smith had a better pa ser rating in seven last season: Short (from behind line of scrimmage up to 10 air yards): Smith (97.2), Cousins (92.0).Intermediate (10 to 19 air yards): Cousins (90.8), Smith (90.1).Deep (20-plus air yards): Smith (134.7), Cousins (93.8).Middle third: Smith (103.6), Cousins (81.8).Outside the numbers: Smith (105.1), Cousins (101.2).Against blitz: Cousins (98.6), Smith (94.9).Against pre sure: Smith (97.0), Cousins (59.1).Tight windows: Smith (67.6), Cousins (53.4).Outside the tackle box: Cousins (118.6), Smith (71.4).Le s than 2.50 seconds: Cousins (104.7), Smith (86.4).2.50 seconds-plus: Smith (111.2), Cousins (85.9). Despite being labeled a "dink and dunk" quarterback for most of his career, Smith is an outstanding pa ser when targeting every area of the field. From "catch, rock and fire" throws near the line of scrimmage to pushing the ball down the field on vertical throws, Smith was more effective than his predece sor. When you dig a little deeper into the shot chart, you also discover that Smith is not only more effective between the hashes, but he is also more efficient hitting receivers outside the numbers. Although target areas reveal a lot about a pa ser's game, defensive coaches will quickly tell you that the best quarterbacks are capable of delivering accurate throws into tight windows under dure s. Smith not only ranked as arguably the best pa ser in the NFL against pre sure, but he was in 2017. Given his effectivene s working the middle of the field and hitting tight windows, the questions regarding his timing and anticipation are well off the mark. In fact, looking at after studying the numbers, I believe Smith doesn't get enough credit for his brilliance as a play-action pa ser in the game. He is a clever ball handler in the backfield with a number of deceptive tactics that lure linebackers and defensive backs to the line, which is why he was the NFL's most effective pa ser on long-developing plays (pa ses released after 2.50 seconds) last season. Looking at all of data and tape, I can see why Gruden is excited to work with his new QB1 in Washington. Smith is not only a more effective pa ser in nearly all areas, but he is also a superior athlete and runner, which makes him more of a dual-threat than Cousins. Now, that's certainly not a surprise, based on their NFL results. Take a look: Smith's 2005 combine results: 4.78-second 40-yard dash, 32-inch vertical jump, 113-inch broad jump, 6.82-second three-cone drill, 3.96-second 20-yard shuttle. Cousins' 2012 combine results: 4.93-seconds 40-yard dash, 28.5-inch vertical jump, 109-inch broad jump, 7.05-second three-cone drill, 4.50-second 20-yard shuttle. Although Smith is no longer that explosive as a 33-year-old quarterback, he remains a B+ athlete based on how he runs away from defenders on tape. He is a viable option as a runner, and that impromptu playmaking ability makes him a more dangerous weapon under center. Most importantly, it adds another layer to the ' playbook and gives Gruden more options when it comes to attacking defenses on game day. Like him or not, Smith is a better player than Cousins -- and Gruden isn't wrong for saying so. 2) Is Johnny Football really working his way back onto an NFL roster? To the dismay of many critics and skeptics, Johnny Manziel is inching closer to a return to the NFL. The former first-round pick not only participated in a pair of pro day workouts over the past couple weeks that have sparked a buzz in the scouting community, but he's reportedly had which suggests he could have a legitimate chance to work his way back onto a roster. It's simple. The NFL is a forgiving community for talented players, particularly when it comes to former first-rounders. Top picks typically get at least three chances to fail in the league before they're completely dismi sed as a bust, so I'm not surprised teams are keeping tabs on Manziel to see if he's turned his life around after spiraling out of control during his brief tenure. When I played with the , Ron Wolf told me that first-rounders were taken at the top of the draft for a reason and sometimes it only takes a change of scenery to bring out their talent. That can be due to a number of factors -- different coaching, playing in a new scheme that better suits a player's talents, the simple maturation that can follow failure -- but giving a rare talent a second chance can pay off in a major way. That's why teams are vetting the former Heisman Trophy winner to see if he's straightened out his personal life and matured into a more focused player, on and off the field. By all accounts, Manziel has shown a more mature side in interviews and private conversations. Scouts attending his pro day workouts told me that he appeared more serious about his work. In addition, they raved about the zip, velocity and placement of his throws. Although he wasn't expected to be the main attraction at these workouts, I had a few scouts in attendance tell me that he to sed the ball around the yard like a top pick. "He definitely hasn't lost anything as a pa ser," an AFC scout told me. "You can see he has a different energy about him." At the time, I thought Manziel displayed plenty of qualities that are common among franchise quarterback. He played with outstanding confidence and swagger as a QB1, exhibiting a fearle s competitive spirit in the clutch. In addition, he displayed terrific poise and composure in critical moments when he had the ball in his hands. As a pa ser, he had more than enough arm strength to make every throw in the book, but he was at his best operating in a Brandon Graham Jersey quick-rhythm system that placed a premium on timely throws from the pocket. Yet, he also thrived as a "sandlot" playmaker, making a combination of rainbow to ses and laser-like throws on the move. While he tended to flee the pocket unnece sarily as a collegian, Manziel flashed just enough discipline to pique the interest of scouts looking for a mobile playmaker with a versatile game. Fast-forward to the brief stint in the NFL. I just studied the tape, and Manziel was better than I remembered. The diminutive playmaker threw the ball with plenty of zip and velocity, but also showed a feathery touch on occasion. Not to mention, he showed good efficiency and above-average accuracy as a quick-rhythm thrower from the pocket, particularly when operating from the shotgun. Manziel was at his best when playing in spread and empty formations, where he could see the field and potential rushers. From a critical standpoint, Manziel was a little undisciplined as a playmaker, which led to some mistakes and turnovers. With his off-field i sues likely affecting his preparation and development, the former first-rounder never reached his potential as a QB1. Given the cloud of uncertainty surrounding his discipline and focus, there are plenty of skeptics questioning Manziel's return to the league. "I can't see it," an NFC scout said to me. "I don't know if you can trust him due to his off-field i sue, and I'm not quite sure that he has enough talent to get another snap in the league. Sure, he can or the CFL, but I can't see him playing in the league again." I don't agree with that scout's a se sment, based on the numerous chances first-rounders typically receive from coaches and execs seeking reclamation projects. Teams are always willing to give young, talented players a chance to earn a spot on the roster, particularly when they've earned high grades from scouts in the room. That's why I'm not surprised the reportedly talked to Manziel before and after his workout at Texas A&M. Manziel was a top-rated prospect in the 2014 cla s that included -- the might've i sued comparable grades to each of the pa sers. Considering how well Garoppolo performed in their system, the Pats could be willing to take a chance on Manziel to see if they can uncover a hidden gem at the position. Although Manziel is more of a freewheeling playmaker than Jimmy G, his game fits the ' quick-rhythm system. He is at his best throwing "catch, rock and fire" pa ses from shotgun sets and his scrambling ability would add a dimension to the offense. I'm obviously not saying he could unseat as the starter, but we've seen the coax quality performances from the likes of , , and others in brief stints, so it's po sible Manziel could show enough promise to earn a spot as a QB2/QB3. Remember, he still has some practice-squad eligibility and that could make him an attractive option as a low-risk signing. 3) Is the kickoff on its last legs? I'm all for the health and safety of the NFL players, but honestly, I'm a little put off by . As a former NFL kick returner myself, I believe the play is one of the most beautiful aspects of the game -- and the impact of a field-flipping return can legitimately alter a game's outcome. I already mentioned to blow open XLVIII earlier in this notebook. Remember in XXXI? Those plays not decided the outcomes of title bouts, but they showed the football world the value of a dominant return man in a big game. From a personal standpoint, the elimination of the kickoff would've reduced my odds of playing five-plus seasons in the NFL. Without carving out a role as a kick returner/kick-coverage specialist, I would've mi sed out on a chance to develop as a position player. While observers rarely pay close attention to the 22 guys on the field during a kicking play (well, besides the kicker and the returner), I can tell you that each member of those teams are battling for their football lives when they're running down the field. That's why I'm saddened to hear about the potential elimination of the kickoff. The lo s of that play would reduce the number of jobs available for developmental players on every team. Sure, teams will find a way to stash a few players on the roster, but those guys won't get a chance to feel the exhilaration of busting a wedge or splitting the seam on a perfectly blocked return. Now, I understand why the Competition Committee would want to reduce a play that's been a sociated with concu sions, but I would hate to see a number of returners and special teamers mi s out on an opportunity to grow as players. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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